METHOD FOR FUTURE PROJECTION OF CARGO HANDLING OPERATION RATE IN PORTS CONSIDERING CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract

 The ensemble wave climate projection dataset for the present and ~4K future warmer climate around Japan clarified the impact of climate change on the cargo handling operation rate in Hokkaido ports. The average rate of Tomakomai Port could increase with the decrease in wave height, and the Mombet-su Port’s rate could decrease because the fetch becomes longer with the decrease of the sea ice in the Okhotsk Sea. Furthermore, the ensemble climate dataset with a much longer data period than observa-tion one makes the probability analysis of the operation rate averrable. It is studied that the impact of climate change could vary by the target of the operation rate.