2023 Volume 79 Issue 17 Article ID: 23-17038
Storm surge disaster caused by explosive cyclones frequently occurred around Hokkaido in the winter season. Future changes in winter explosive cyclones and storm surge due to climate change needs to be considered. In this study, the explosive cyclones classified by genesis and maximum development location into three trajectory types using d4PDF. Statistics compared the frequency of passage, migration speed, central pressure, development rate, and maximum wind velocity both in the past and in the future. In addition, water levels and flow fields calculated using advanced circulation model for oceanic. The calculation results evaluate the impact of changes in the characteristics of the meteorological field on storm surge levels. The comparison results show that in the future climate, the passing frequency increased from the Sea of Japan to the Sea of Okhotsk. The maximum magnitude low-pressure intensity could intensify. The storm surge calculation results show areas that could be dangerous in the future.
