2023 Volume 79 Issue 17 Article ID: 23-17166
In this study, pseudo-global warming track ensemble experiments for Typhoon Nanmadol (2022) are conducted using a dynamic coupled atmosphere-storm surge model in order to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of typhoon track, landfall, and global warming on typhoon intensity and storm surge in the Ariake Sea. It is estimated that Nanmadol crossing Kyushu raises the central pressure by about +20 hPa due to the effects of the landfall, and the effects of storm surge suppression at the Ooura Port is quantitatively shown to be about -0.62 m. According to the results of the pseudo-global warming track ensemble experiments, a future-climate typhoon moving northward over the sea west of Kyushu would enhance the risk of storm surge disasters due to 1) higher sea surface temperatures by the global warming, 2) lower attenuation by the local topography, and 3) higher wind speeds along the bay axis.
