LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY USING MPI THEORY BASED ON CMIP6 HIGHRESMIP PROJECTIONS

Abstract

 This study shows future changes in the maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) based on the MPI (Maximum Potential Intensity) theory. In addition, we have clarified the accuracy characteristics of TC intensity assessment depending on climate models and predicted future changes in TC intensity for each basin. The climate data used in this study is the HighResMIP (High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project) experiment, including both atmospheric and atmosphere-ocean models, for 30 models. The spatial pattern between the reanalysis values from the observed data and climate models on the HighResMIP experiment in the present period generally agreed. The ensemble average MPI of the models for each basin, considering the inverse of RMSE as weights, indicated that the TC intensity will be strengthened to a maximum of about 940 hPa by 2050 in the WNP and NA. In the WNP, most of the models showed TC intensity will be stronger by 1 to 3 hPa in the future, while in the NA, 47% of the models showed MPI future change would be twice that of the WNP.