2023 Volume 79 Issue 18 Article ID: 23-18131
Wave forecasts are used in various fields, but short-term wave forecasts for 1 to 10 days are often used for decision-making. For example, in coastal or offshore construction, the accuracy and precision of wave forecasts significantly impact the construction work's operation and efficiency, as waves can prevent the use of work vessels. On the other hand, medium-term forecasts are also important for construction planning, and monthly average wave height forecasts using ensemble wave height forecasts up to several months ahead based on statistical wave height estimation models have been attracting attention. This study examined a method for estimating operation rates by comparing predicted monthly mean wave heights with observed waves in historical data. As a result, it is possible to estimate the operation rate (frequency of occurrence of waves less than 1.0 m in height) to some extent from the predicted monthly mean wave heights and historical observations. However, the estimation of the operation rate is difficult when the predicted wave height deviates extremely from the observed monthly mean wave height or when the prediction accuracy is less accurate. This is because it depends on the information of past wave arrivals.
