STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF RECENT TYPHOON FORECASTING ERRORS BY REGIONAL OCEAN AREA

Abstract

 The evaluation of errors in tropical cyclone forecasts is necessary to assess the uncertainty that exists in tropical cyclone disaster forecasting and to make decisions on mitigation actions. We analyzed the "Typhoon Information" materials published by the Japan Meteorological Agency from 2015 to 2020 to examine the statistical characteristics of forecast errors in tropical cyclone characteristics such as route, central pressure, and storm radius. The distribution of forecast error varied from region to region. The results also indicate that there is a bias in the forecast. The standard deviation of the forecast error was found to be as large as the mean. The route error increases relatively monotonically with lead time, while the central pressure and storm radius change less as lead time generally exceeds 30 hours. Due to the large variability of the individual forecast route errors, there is no direct correlation with the radius of the forecast circle, but a certain correlation is shown for the average statistics.