2023 Volume 79 Issue 2 Article ID: 22-00096
Toward steady adaptation to a changing climate, this study analyzed the potential of a single run of the 150-year seamless experiment by the Meteorological Research Institute (hereinafter, 150-year experiment) with non-stationary frequency analysis for projecting temporal changes in 100-year basin rainfall in all the class-A river systems in Japan. The methodological validity of non-stationary frequency analysis for estimating the past change ratio of 100-year basin rainfall was examined. Then, its past, near future and future change ratio by 150-year experiment was validated against the stationary frequency analysis of d4PDF, indicating that the estimated change ratio with 150-year experiment and d4PDF were in good agreement for the national mean change ratio, while the 150-year experiment showed larger variability in regional/catchment-scale change ratio. It is essential to increase ensembles to project the future change path of extreme basin rainfall at a catchment-scale.
