RECOVERY CURVE OF POST-EARTHQUAKE PRODUCTION CAPACITY CONSIDERING LIFELINE RECOVERY PERIOD —A CASE STUDY OF THE 2022 FUKUSHIMA OFFSHORE EARTHQUAKE—

Abstract

In this paper, we proposed a methodology for estimating the recovery curve of the production capacity that considers the impact of lifeline recovery time. Specifically, we modeled the production capacity recovery process under the semi-Markov process framework and applied it to a case study of the business survey data following the 2022 Fukushima offshore earthquake. Also, we proposed a method for estimating the parameters of the sojourn time distribution of the production capacity level conditional on the lifeline recovery time. Moreover, the application of the proposed method to the 2022 Fukushima offshore earthquake illustrated the production capacity recovery process of firms in the disaster affected area. Results suggested that the proposed model is able to quantitatively evaluate the impact of the lifeline recovery speed on the recovery of production capacity, as it estimates the recovery curve conditional on the lifeline recovery time. Results also provided useful information for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of infrastructure recovery countermeasures after seismic disasters.