2023 Volume 79 Issue 20 Article ID: 23-20073
In Japan, numerous instances exist where the development of transportation infrastructure, including measures for disaster prevention, has experienced substantial delays in comparison to established plans, primarily due to fiscal constraints. However, if the clear contribution of infrastructure investment to reducing disaster damages and improving the transportation network for long-term fiscal improvement is established, it would enhance the feasibility of necessary investments. In this study, we constructed a model that describes the local tax revenues of each prefecture, which is connected to existing macroeconomic and regional models, with the aim of enabling analysis of the effects of transportation infrastructure investment on "future fiscal balance." As a result, we have achieved a higher accuracy of local tax revenue estimation compared to conventional estimation methods. Additionally, a case study was conducted on the effects of developing expressway networks, suggesting the potential for estimating the regional fiscal the long-term improvement effects of infrastructure investment as a means of facilitating disaster prevention investment.
