CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON SUPPLY POTENTIAL OF VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY

Abstract

 The electricity supply from variable renewable energy (VRE) is crucial to mitigate global climate change. Although variability of VRE poses integration challenges for the power systems, the impact of climate change on variability has not been clarified. This study aims to assess the climate change impact on the supply potential of VRE and to find implications for the probability of VRE-oriented power systems using the VRE model for the entire world. The results show that climate change mitigation has a positive impact on the technical potential of VRE and that the climate change impact on periods when VRE output is low relative to the annual average is small and that the periods are strongly dependent on regional factors. The results also show that the seasonal variability of large-scale solar PV is greater than that of onshore wind power, but that combining them may mitigate the seasonal variability. On the other hand, it is also shown that even with the combination of solar and wind, it is important to manage the variability when VRE provides the majority of the electricity.