GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF WOOD SUBSTITUTION FOR STEEL AND CEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

Abstract

 Wood is expected to have climate change mitigation effects by replacing steel and cement and by storing carbon in buildings for long periods of time. This study quantitatively evaluates the role of wood substitution of steel and cement used in buildings in a scenario to achieve the 1.5°C target on a global scale. The results show that wood substitution has a GHG emission reduction effect of 0.45-4.0 GtCO₂eq/yr from 2020 to 2100, and reduces the GDP loss, which is a metric of climate change mitigation cost, by 0.2-0.9% in 2100 under the 1.5°C target scenario. The magnitude of these effects varied depending on the substitution rate. The feasibility of wood substitution would not be solely determined by economic rationality, but rather policy guidance could play a significant role. It is considered important to proceed with discussions on actual policy while comprehensively evaluating the advantages and disadvantages based on the results of this study.