2023 Volume 79 Issue 8 Article ID: 22-00209
The long-term climate mitigation scenarios are not estimated in the context of their validity and feasibility, despite their essential role in climate policymaking. In this study, we focused on the distribution of rate and amount of annual change in indicators from the scenarios, presented an evaluation method comparing the future and historical change, and applied the method to the three indicators consisting of energy intensity, carbon intensity, and electrification rate. The change rate distribution in energy intensity is within the range of historical experience, but 40 to 50% of the change rate distribution is out of the range of historical experience in carbon intensity and electrification rate required in some scenarios with severe climate targets.
