METHODOLOGY TO DETERMINE RAINFALL STANDARDS OF TRAFFIC REGULATION BY HAZARD MODEL

Abstract

 It is important to execute appropriate traffic regulations for ensuring user’s safety against slope disaster caused by rainfall. In this study, the authors improve the framework of a methodology to determine traffic regulation standard which is proposed for setting a rainfall index value that is standard for traffic regulation. Specifically, a hazard model is proposed as a model for predicting an occurrence of slope disasters. This model can deals with unobservability, which means that a time of disaster occurrence cannot be accurately grasped. In addition, the rainfall index that should be used for traffic regulation is discussed in terms of soil moisture content and rainfall intensity. Furthermore, ”Number of missed cases” and ”regulation time” are adopted as risk management indicators suitable for this hazard model, and the regulation standard setting model is formulated. Lastly, the effectiveness of the proposed methodology is discussed by using the actual records (slope disaster, patrol inspection and rainfall) in an expressway section.