A STUDY ON UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT BASED ON ESTIMATION OF THE NUMBER OF TRANSPORTED HEATSTROKE

Abstract

 This study estimated the number of transported heat stroke patients at municipal level in Shiga Prefecture during 2030-2059 using multiple Global Climate Models and climate scenarios(combination of RCPs and SSPs). The regional risk and population risk are presented as a ratio of the total number and a ratio per 100, 000 people of transported heat stroke patients (relative to 2010-2019), respectively, to identify municipalities with high risk. In addition, the following uncertainties under the climate change impact assessment were examined; a whole prefecture and the range of municipalities, the range due to differences in Global Climate Models, and the range of yearly fluctuations.

 The municipalities with high risk were Kusatsu city, Moriyama city, and Ritto city, where populations don’t decrease and temperature increase significantly. Those with low risk were Kora town, Taga town, and Takashima city. The population risks for aged 65 years old and over were high in Maibara city and Otsu city. It is suggested that differences in Global Climate Models cause differences in future trends, and that yearly fluctuation could be greater than the difference by the range between models and scenarios.