CHARACTERIZATION ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE PREDICTED RAINFALL AND ENSEMBLE PREDICTED RAINFALL AT DAM BASINS IN JAPAN

Abstract

 We calculated the threat score, false alarms rate, and misses rate for the upstream basins of dams in Japan, and comparisons between the guidance predicted rainfall which used in the preliminary release operation guidelines and observed rainfall. The ensemble predicted rainfall was also compared with observed rainfall in order to examine the possibility of utilizing the preliminary release operation.

 As a result, we confirmed that the guidance predicted rainfall tended to be underpredicted for dams with short rainfall duration and that the ensemble predicted rainfall by GEPS (Global Ensemble Prediction Systems) tended to be underpredicted and needed to be corrected.