2024 Volume 80 Issue 16 Article ID: 23-16154
The increase in flood damage due to climate change in recent years has created a need for quantitative assessment of flood risk. The purpose of this study is to adapt the failure probability to flood risk assessment. We have developed a method for evaluating the failure probability and a method for integrating the failure probabilities of multiple evaluation points. The developed method uses a Monte Carlo approach to represent a levee failure due to overtopping and takes into account uncertainties in levee height, water level, and erosion resistance of the slopes. The results of applying this method to a real river levee showed that it is possible to set conditions that prevent levee failure even when the water level exceeds the levee height. We also focused on the dependency relationships between upstream and downstream breach points and proposed a method for integrating the failure probabilities based on the assumption of these relationships. This method reveals that there is a significant difference in the failure probability for the entire section depending on whether or not the dependency relationship is taken into account.
