PREDICTION OF HIGH WAVE AND STORM SURGE AT KOBE PORT BASED ON MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND ITS ACCURACY VERIFICATION

Abstract

 This study investigated a method for predicting high wave and storm surge at Kobe port during typhoon based on a multiple regression analysis using historical data from off shore stations around the Kii Channel. The relationship between the data at Kobe port and offshore observation data at 4 to 12 hours before the occurrence of a disturbance was confirmed by the regression analysis for 30 typhoon-induced disturbances during the 28-year period from 1993 to 2020. The results showed that wave height and tide level deviation at the time of disturbances at Kobe port were highly correlated with ones at Murotsu port in Kochi prefecture at 10 to 12 hours and 4 hours before the disturbance, respectively.