The Impact of Storm Surge Anomalies on Future Climate in Coastal Estuaries Facing the Open Ocean

Abstract

 Typhoons are expected to become more powerful with climate change, and there is concern that this will increase the risk of storm surge in coastal areas. This study focuses on storm surge anomaly in the Kumano River estuary facing the open ocean, rather than in inner bays where many studies have been conducted, and examines its impact on flooding. This paper consists of three parts. (1) The analysis of storm surge anomaly by moving Ise Bay typhoon parallel to the east-west direction shows that the storm surge anomaly is maximum at 0.92 m at 40 km to the east. (2) Storm surge anomaly analysis based on the d4PDF typhoon track, which assumes the future climate, showed that the storm surge anomaly was more than 1 m higher than the result in (1), but the storm surge anomaly tended to be larger at the time of approach and lower central pressure, regardless of the track. (3) The effect of storm surge on the water level of the Kumano River in the event of flooding was found to be negligible.