2024 Volume 80 Issue 17 Article ID: 24-17044
Sea level rise and intensified storm surges due to climate change are assumed to increase the inundation risk in coastal areas. Climate change adaptation policies in Japan are being developed, but long-term changes in inundation risk have not yet been quantified. This study estimated the potential inundation risk areas considering sea level rise and future population changes for three major bays in Japan, including different SSP scenarios. Then, storm surge simulations for Typhoon Jebi in Osaka Bay were performed for under high tide conditions that take sea level rise into account to estimate the future changes in the inundated area and the storm surge-affected population. The results showed that the effect of population change was larger than that of hazard intensity change on the affected population and that a significant increase in the impact after 2020 was observed only in the high discharge scenario with SSP5-8.5 in Tokyo Bay. This analysis highlighted that the differences between scenarios for the population of high risk areas with regard to storm surge become more significant after 2060.
