TYPHOON TRACKING IN D4PDF'S +1.5K WARMING SCENARIO AND TYPHOON IMPACT ASSESSMENT BASED ON WARMING LEVELS

Abstract

 A new tropical cyclone dataset for Japan under the 1.5K warming scenario was constructed using an objective cyclone tracking algorithm and the d4PDF (database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change). The d4PDF data for the 1.5K condition used in the tracking is limited to the Japan area, and we corrected for the effect of not being able to extract the data globally, considering the characteristics of spatial constraints. For the correction, we evaluated the typhoon bias of the d4PDF 1.5K track compared to the d4PDF 4K global track and confirmed the consistency with other warming-level data sets. Then, typhoons affecting the Japanese coastline are analyzed, and the frequency and intensity of strong typhoons in the present climate, +1.5, +2, and +4 degree scenarios can be evaluated regarding their change with warming levels.