UTILIZATION OF HIGH RESOLUTION GLOBAL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM TO MARITIME CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT

Abstract

 In maritime construction management, judgment based on weather and sea condition forecasts is highly valued, but it is currently difficult to predict weather and sea conditions completely using existing technology. Therefore, ensemble forecasts, which capture meteorological phenomena probabilistically, have started to be utilized. The Japan Meteorological Agency increased the spatial resolution of the Weekly Ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction Model GPV (Japan) from 0.5625 degrees to 0.375 degrees since March 2022. In this study, we conducted wave calculations using the wind data included in the Weekly Ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction Model GPV (Japan). By evaluating the impact of high-resolution forecasting on wind and wave predictions, we examined the application of this high-resolution forecasting in maritime construction management. As a result, there were fluctuations in wind speed after the increase in resolution, and an increasing trend was observed in the rate of change of ensemble-averaged wave height data. When utilized for construction feasibility and ship evacuation decisions, an improvement in accuracy was observed.