2024 Volume 80 Issue 20 Article ID: 24-20044
In Japan, it is sometimes argued that railway operators who make operating profits should work to relieve in-vehicle crowding on urban railways. On the other hand, it is said that reducing crowding is unlikely to lead to profits for railway operators, but no quantitative evidence has been officially provided. We estimated rail demand and fare revenue for four railway operators in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area by using a transport behavior model based on the Council for Transport Policy Report No. 198 and estimating the increase in transportation capacity by increasing the number of trains during the morning peak hours. We also estimated the increase in personnel costs and expenses associated with increasing the number of trains and showed the changes in operating profits. Our results found that the profits of three and all four companies decreased if the number of trains was increased by 10% and 30%, respectively. This study revealed that private railway operators would need some form of assistance to improve their profits if they were asked to further reduce crowding.
