2024 Volume 80 Issue 27 Article ID: 24-27024
This study assessed the vision of Japan's power sector in 2040 by using conjoint analysis based on the results of a model intercomparison project. The attributes of the conjoint analysis were safety, economic efficiency, environmental suitability, and energy security, which are the basic principles of Japan's energy policy. The levels of each attribute were set based on the results of scenario analyses assuming the achievement of Japan's long-term emission reduction targets by using the multiple energy system and integrated assessment models. The results of the conjoint analysis showed that the preferences for lower economic performance, lower safety, and lower energy security were significantly low. Economic efficiency and energy security were the dominant factors in the relative importance assessment, accounting for about 45% and 38%, respectively. Meanwhile, environmental suitability had no significant effect on the preference of the visions. This may be because that all the options of CO2 emission targets under the long-term emission targets we presented, which is the index of the environmental suitability, are ambitious compared to current levels and, therefore, are not taken seriously by the respondents; instead, other attributes that they consider may directory affect their lives influence their preferences of 2040 visions.
