ASSESSING IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE AND THEIR IMPACTS ON GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT FOR 47 PREFECTURES

Abstract

 This study utilized the grided Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Regional Product (GRP) as indicators of inundation damage due to sea level rise to calculate the nationwide and regional loss amounts and loss ratios, and analyze the impacts on the regions of Japan. GDP loss amounts for the year 2100 were estimated to be 39.1 trillion yen under SSP1-2.6, 28.5 trillion yen under SSP2-4.5, and 65.2 trillion yen under SSP5-8.5, and these amounts were compared with those from existing damage estimation methods. The three metropolitan prefectures of Tokyo, Aichi, and Osaka accounted for 70% of the total GDP loss. It was found that the distribution of damage varies depending on the characteristics of the municipalities prone to inundation, for example, those found within Saga, Mie, Kochi, and Kumamoto prefectures, as well as the three metropolitan prefectures.