2024 Volume 80 Issue 27 Article ID: 24-27051
In previous studies, emissions estimated by integrated assessment models have been downscaled to the grid and input into earth system models. However, the current method cannot account for future land cover changes. In this study, we developed a downscaling model coupled with a land cover partitioning model, and developed a downscaling method that takes future land cover into account. The downscaled emissions were then input to an atmospheric chemistry transport model to estimate pollutant concentrations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of land cover change on air pollution by comparing the results with existing methods. The maximum difference in concentration changes between the methods between now and the future was estimated to be 6.4 percentage points. However, the difference in concentration change was small, and it was concluded that the impact of land cover change on air pollution is small.
