2024 Volume 80 Issue 5 Article ID: 23-00122
In order to ensure safe train operation in heavy rainfall events, railway operators enforce the train operation control based on observed rainfall values of rain gauges along railways. Now rainfall forecasting information could give railway operators the opportunity to enhance safety in operations. In this study, as short-term prediction method suitable for the train operation control, we investigated the prediction method combining the advection model and the orographic rainfall model. We verified the estimation accuracy of ground rainfall amounts and the accuracy of predicting times when the train operation control will be issued in the case of using the orographic rainfall model. Furthermore, we introduced a correction method using the error ensemble to the prediction method. As a result of verification targeted many railway rain gauges in the east Japan during the Typhoon Hagibis in October 2019, we found that the estimation accuracy of ground rainfall amounts is improved by using the orographic rainfall model. And we found that the prediction method considering the orographic rainfall with the correction method could accurately predict times when the train operation control would be issued, and earlier than the case of only the advection model.
