SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSIONS BASED ON CHANGES IN TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT AND DIFFUSION OF JOHKASOU

Abstract

 In order to examine the reduction plan and direction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions for the decarbonization of Johkasou, we conducted a simulation analysis of GHGs emissions based on the estimation of the number of installed Johkasou based on changes in technological development and diffusion of Johkasou in Japan from FY1990 to FY2030. Based on the results, GHGs emissions from the entire Johkasou sector in FY2030 based on the BAU scenario are estimated to be -25% of FY 2013, and even if the 46% reduction in GHGs emissions in the energy sector due to the energy shift is taken into account, it is estimated that the reduction will be only 43% and the domestic target (46% reduction compared to FY2013) will not be achieved. Therefore, in Johkasou sector, technological development and new diffusional policies aimed at further reduction of GHGs are necessary.