2025 Volume 81 Issue 16 Article ID: 24-16049
This study applied a flood forecast system to Kyoto Prefecture and evaluated the accuracy for past four flood events. The flood forecast system is based on the RRI model, that is forced by a short-term rainfall forecast produced by JMA. The questionnaire survey showed that municipal governments required flood forecast accuracy for alert level 3 for evacuation and evacuation leading time from 1 to 3 hours. This study shows that the accuracy against alert level 3 for 1-hour, 2-hour and 3-hour lead time, based on 42 gauged stations for 4 flood events, is 0.84, 0.73 and 0.63 respectively. In addition, this study demonstrates that the accuracy of a flood forecast for a small catchment, which is smaller than 100 km2, is 0.78 using evaluation criteria that includes 1-hour lead time. In conclusion, this study shows that the flood forecast has a high potential to predict a water level for a small catchment.
