GLOBAL ANTHROPOGENIC HEAT EMISSION PROJECTIONS INFORMED BY AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL

Abstract

 This study proposes a dynamic and integrated modeling approach to predict anthropogenic heat emissions (AHE), which are additional heat sources on the Earth's surface resulting from urban human energy consumption, by utilizing an integrated assessment model (IAM) and high-resolution heat emission datasets. Based on energy consumption data obtained from IAM and adjusted using heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) acquired from climate models, we improved the accuracy and resolution of AHE predictions. This model integrates IAM outputs to enhance Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, which were previously limited, enabling predictions under various future conditions. Our methodology provides an essential tool for simulating the impacts of policy changes and technological developments on urban heat emissions, supporting stakeholders in formulating effective urban and environmental policies. The results of this study emphasize the importance of considering urban expansion and climate change in future AHE predictions, setting new standards in urban environmental research and providing a framework for future urban climate adaptation strategies.