Special Issue (Hydraulic Engineering)Paper
CLIMATE CHANGES IMPACT OF DEBRIS FLOW DAMAGE ASSESSMENT BASED ON FLOOD SEDIMENTATION USING PLANNING METHOD
2025 Volume 81 Issue 16 Article ID: 24-16155
Details
2025 Volume 81 Issue 16 Article ID: 24-16155
In the future, it is expected that the amount and frequency of precipitation will increase due to climate change caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions, and the impact of this on railways is a concern. In this study, we used the output data from a numerical experiment under the conditions of the RCP8.5 scenario using a climate model to evaluate future changes in debris flow damage assessment based on flood sedimentation using a planning method, targeting the Yamagata Shinkansen. As a result of assessing the debris flows damage for daily rainfall with various exceedance probabilities, we found that the probability of exceeding the daily rainfall that will cause debris flow disasters will increase by 20% in the future compared to the present period, and the number of debris flow disasters occurring for the same daily rainfall exceedance probability will increase by 1.9 to 2.4 times, which will be the impact of climate change.
