PROPOSAL FOR A SHORT-TERM RAINFALL PREDICTION METHOD USING VERTICAL WIND ESTIMATES FROM MP-PAWR DATA

Abstract

 This paper proposes a new rainfall forecasting method that utilizes vertical wind estimates from MP-PAWR and incorporates an algorithm to suppress the source term in VIL Nowcast, a short-time rainfall forecasting method. Specifically, we integrated vertical wind data derived from Dual Doppler analysis into the VIL Nowcast and compared the forecast results with those of the conventional VIL Nowcast. The results demonstrated significant important during periods of rainfall intensity and observed downdrafts. The RMSE decreased across all lead times with more pronounced reductions at longer lead time.