ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL AND TYPHOON TRACK UNDER TYPHOON HAGIBIS 2019

Abstract

 In this study, the relationship between heavy rainfall and typhoon tracks brought by Typhoon Hagibis in 2019 to the upper Tone River Basin and Chikuma River Basin was analyzed using historical cases and high-resolution mass ensemble data (d4PDF) of typhoon events with similar tracks, with cases with east-west typhoon track deviations as comparators. It is shown that typhoon rainfall with similar tracks based on the same case event produces the maximum rainfall in both target regions. In both cases, rainfall under the future climate exceeds rainfall under the present climate. The rainfall amounts in the post-warming period are larger than the maximum rainfall amounts in the past climate, even when the typhoon tracks are shifted east-west, indicating that the frequency of typhoons bringing extreme rainfall to the region may increase.