STUDY ON FUTURE CHANGES IN TYPHOONS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IN KYUSHU

Abstract

 In response to Kyushu’s vulnerability to changes in typhoon characteristics due to global warming, this study applied a combination of self-organizing maps and cluster analysis to large-scale climate projection data to examine future changes in typhoon paths, intensity, frequency, and associated precipitation. The results showed that the absolute number of typhoons is projected to decrease overall. Additionally, while the occurrence of paths traversing north-south through Kyushu is expected to decline, paths crossing eastwest across the region are expected to increase. Furthermore, future changes in typhoon paths will vary depending on patterns of future sea surface temperature changes, and the latitude-dependent strengthening of typhoons will differ by path. Although precipitation associated with typhoons is generally expected to increase along all paths, the increase is particularly significant for typhoons taking north-south routes. The method was also devised using machine learning to capture the changing characteristics of precipitation from individual typhoons, enabling an analysis of future changes based on historical typhoon events.