STUDY ON COMPARISON OF DEMAND FORECAST RESULTS AND ACTUAL USAGE OF THE UTSUNOMIYA LIGHT RAIL

Abstract

 Utsunomiya Light Rail was introduced as the first all-new LRT line in Japan against a background of demand for a sustainable city. Since the Utsunomiya Light Rail was introduced in a city where no streetcars had existed before, demand was estimated using the four-stage estimation method based on the existing public transportation usage. However, the actual number of users has exceeded the projection, so there is a large possibility that there is a demand that was not considered in the existing estimation.

 Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the differences in usage characteristics between LRT and existing means of transportation by reproducing the demand forecasting method used at the time of planning and comparing it with actual usage conditions, in order to help forecast LRT demand in the future. Comparison of demand forecasts and actual usage showed that the demand estimates were highly accurate and the demand for personal use greatly exceeded the forecasts. The reasons for this are assumed to be the increase in the population along the LRT line and the development of commercial facilities integrated with the LRT.