Abstract
The Load - Resistance Factor Design is now due in the design of an arctic structure. The specific load, which corresponds a certain return period, is used as the design load. The specific load would be calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation. The accuracy of calculated specific ice load depends on the deterministic equation to estimate ice force. Many equations to estimate ice force on a vertical structure have been proposed. However calculated ice forces have a wide variety. One of Molikpaq events in the Amauligak I-65 can give us well-documented full-scale data to evaluate those ice force equations. In this paper, the Molikpaq event on February 17th, 1986 is chosen as a full-scale data. From ice conditions reported, probability density functions of ice conditions are established. The Monte Carlo simulations to obtain probability distributions of ice force are performed. Comparing the probability distributions with the Molikpaq data, each ice force equation is evaluated. 11 existing equations are evaluated, four of them could be either applicable to a large structure. Considering the equations to be applicable, it is concluded that a simple Korzavin type equation with the coefficient of 0.35 to 0.45 is recommendable.
