NUMERICAL STUDY ON TSUNAMI PROPAGATION CAUSED BY TOKAI, TONANKAI AND NANKAI MASSIVE EARTHQUAKES

Abstract

 Since the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake occurred, it has been pointed out that Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai massive earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 could attack the Pacific Ocean coasts. This paper discusses tsunami propagation characteristics caused by Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai massive earthquakes on the coast of the Pacific Ocean and three major bays (Tokyo Bay, Ise Bay and Osaka Bay). The numerical results showed that the tsunami heights of M9.0 were about twice comparing to those of M8.7 on the coast of the Pacific Ocean and the tsunami arrival time was faster at some areas distant from the source of tsunami. Moreover, high water level in the bays was also found to continue for a long time because the bay mouths are narrow.