Abstract
This study aims at investigating space and time-distributions of possible maximum storm surges and high waves caused by potential typhoons in Mikawa Bay under a present climate. A meteorological field surrounding Typhoon Vera (1959) was assumed as the present climate which generates the potential typhoons. Under this condition, a potential vorticity bogussing scheme of a tropical cyclone initialized 200 cases of potential typhoons striking Mikawa Bay. Then, the spatial and temporal distributions of the storm surges and the high waves in Mikawa Bay under the 200 initial fields were predicted by using an atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled model.
The results show that the potential storm tide over a large area of Mikawa Bay exceeds 2.75 m which is the largest storm tide ever recorded in Mikawa Bay. In particular, the storm tide in Takahama, located at the eastern inner part of Mikawa Bay, reaches 4.0 m in the maximum and exceeds 2.75 m during 70 minutes. Hence, there is a possibility of an occurrence of the storm surge disaster in Mikawa Bay under the present climate.
