APPLICABILITY OF SDP WINDS-BASED WAVE HINDCAST MODEL AND ESTIMATION OF EXTREMES OF WAVE HEIGHT IN TOKYO AND ISE BAYS

Abstract

 Shallow water wave hindcasting for each of around 100 intense storms (typhoons and low pressure systems) in the past 45 years from 1961 to 2005 is attempted independently in Tokyo Bay and in Ise Bay. Marine wind distributions are obtained using the SDP wind data acquired at on-land meteorological stations around Tokyo Bay and Ise Bay respectively. An extreme value analysis is conducted to obtain 50-year return wave height H₅₀ in both bays. Comparison between hindcasts and measurements is made for not only the time-varying wave height and its peak wave height during a storm at several stations but also for the H₅₀. Results show that the wave model yields generally reasonable estimates. In Tokyo Bay, a 3 m contour line of the H₅₀ with the maximum of 4 m covers a wide area and in Ise Bay, a 4 m contour line of the H₅₀ with the maximum of 5.5 m spreads over a wide area.