Abstract
Since IPCC published 5th Assessment Report of WG1, we estimated future damage risk all over Japanese land caused by storm surge under global warming. For the estimation, heights of sea level rise were set on conditions that representative concentration pathways were RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and that climate models were MRI-CGCM3, MIROC5 and HadMED2-ESX. The estimation years were 2050 and 2100. We estimated storm surge damage risks of 893 areas divided into from whole of Japanese low land, and gathered those risks. We understood spatial distribution and changes of 100 years on storm surge risk. The results indicated that 3 major bays, Set Inland Sea and Ariake / Yatsushiro Sea have relatively high storm surge risks, and that storm surge risks increase almost linearly during 100 years.
