Abstract
Typhoon is one of the most devastating meteorological phenomena causing storm surge disaster. Recently, some researchers reported that typhoons will be stronger and their courses will shift toward the east or/and the north due to global warming. Therefore, it is of great importance to investigate the characteristics of future typhoons. In order to predict the potential storm surge due to the future typhoons, the climate projection data seem to be useful. In this study, especially focusing on the typhoon courses, we investigated the change of typhoon characteristics due to global warming around Japan by comparing the future climate data with the present climate data computed by MRI-AGCM3.2S. First, we extracted typhoon data from the time series of atmospheric pressure data around Japan. Next, we analyzed the passing number and each central pressure of the typhoons which passed every latitude. Then we investigated the characteristics of spatial distribution of passing number and strength of typhoons. We also compared the median point of typhoon tracks in the future with that at the present. As results, it is found that there is no significant change in the mean typhoon course, although unevenness in typhoon courses will be slightly bigger in the future than at the present. It is also found that the area over which strong typhoons pass through, i.e., around Okinawa as seen in the present climate data, tends to spread in all the directions in the future climate.
