EFFECTS OF ESTIMATED STRONG MOTION ON TSUNAMI EVACUATION IN COASTAL AREAS, SHIZUOKA PREFECTURE, JAPAN, DURING A SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE WITH MW9.0 ALONG THE NANKAI TROUGH

Abstract

 During a scenario earthquake with MW9.0 along the Nankai Trough, not only strong motion but also huge tsunami is predicted in Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan. In this study, first, seismic waveforms at station sites for ground motion observation in the coastal area were estimated based on the SMGA models considering local site effects. Using non-evacuation time based on the time history of instrumental seismic intensity, the effect of the estimated strong motion on tsunami evacuation was then discussed. Finally, in order to evaluate evacuation time from the strong motion estimation sites to designated refuge places, walking experiments were carried out. The constructed relationship between the evacuation time and the non-evacuation time will be useful for conventional seashore preservation in Shizuoka Prefecture.