Abstract
Typhoon characteristics in the near-future climate were evaluated using the large scale ensemble climate prediction database (d4PDF). At first, the model bias was checked and corrected by comparing cumulative probability distributions of center pressure of typhoons extracted from d4PDF with best track data of Japan Meteorological Agency. As a result, it was found that the bias depends on latitude, and accurate correction results were obtained by bias correction with considering the latitude dependency. Next, future changes of the typhoon characteristics around Japan were evaluated with focusing on differences among patterns of future change of sea surface temperature (SST). The number of typhoon depends on the spatial pattern of SST, and the typhoon can be stronger under high SST condition. The areas where the typhoons are strengthened in the future depend on the pattern of SST.
