ONE WEEK WAVE PREDICTION METHOD APPLYING GMDH’S PARTIAL EXPRESSION TO GLOBAL WAVE FORECAST AND VALIDATING ACCURACY

Abstract

 There are many kinds of global wave forecasts currently available, however, from the resolution point of view, we cannot expect accuracy of their predictions one week ahead, for the coast of Japan. This study aims to establish a wave prediction method to aid in the scheduling of ships for work in harbor and marine construction. We proposed a method of improving wave prediction up to one week ahead and verified its accuracy for a target area at the Port of Hitachinaka, using global wave forecast values and the partial expression of the Group Method of Data Handling. It was found that when global wave data by the NOAA and ECMWF wave models were used together in the partial expression, predictions of significant wave heights agreed well with the observed ones; for significant wave periods, data combination of both the Japan Meteorological Agency and ECMWF wave models gave the best performance. This method can be applied to any location by applying the same technique to the forecasted and observed wave data for that area.