BASIC STUDY ON THE ESTIMATION OF POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AND STORM SURGE AROUND ISHIGAKIJIMA ISLAND

Abstract

 The reproducibility of stochastic tropical cyclone model in Ishigaki-jima Island has been examined and showed the good performance. The reproduced typhoon intensity and the storm surge for 5000 years have been estimated from results of the combined stochastic and empirical estimation models. In this area, the tropical cyclones translate toward the north and north-east is severe to the storm surge. However, the substantial risk of the storm surge caused by the tropical cyclone translate toward the north-west is relatively higher.