2021 Volume 77 Issue 2 Pages I_745-I_750
Due to the global warming, storm surges have been getting further threat. Accordingly, it is expected that the needs for storm surge prediction will increase more and more in Japan where the main properties are accumulated in the lowland. The scale of storm surge is strongly affected by the typhoon track, which is difficult to estimate accurately in advance. Hence, the ensemble weather forecast was applied to the system, in order not to miss the height of maximum tidal level in the prediction. As tests, the post analysis was performed with typhoon 19 in 2019, and the real-time ones were done with typhoon 10, 12 and 14 in 2020. Consequently, it was known that the invented system can predict the storm surges almost all the time from 120 hours before the typhoons approached to the objective sea area. On the other hands, more trials using other typhoons are needed for the improvement since there are still few examples using the system. Besides the contents of the information which will be provided as a storm surge prediction will continued to be brushed up.
