2022 Volume 78 Issue 2 Pages I_349-I_354
In this study, we conducted a pseudo-warming experiment of the storm surge in Tokyo Bay associated with Typhoon Hagibis (2019) using SSP585 scenario proposed by the IPCC AR 6. Two types of meteorological data, FNL and GFS, were used as initial boundary conditions, and the accuracy of the reconstruction of typhoons and storm surges was examined by comparing the results of the two types of data. As a result, the case employing GFS showed better results of intensity and track of the typhoon. In the pseudo-warming experiment, spectral nudging was used to make the track of typhoons under global warming close to that under present climate. By setting the appropriate coefficient of nudging intensity when using spectral nudging, it is possible to appropriately mimic the path of the typhoon without suppressing the reduction in typhoon intensity. As a result of storm surge simulation forced by the simulated typhoon, storm surge height was nearly 2 m in the Tokyo Bay under SSP585 scenario.
