Abstract
Progress of numerical simulation technique such as DEM (Discrete Element Method) permits prediction of down-slope movement of rock debris to some extent. It is, however, not reasonable to predict how far the falling rocks reach and how seriously they affect structures in concern deterministically because large uncertainties are involved in the prediction. This study proposes a method to assess the probability of collision to the structures when a distribution of falling rocks are obtained by some numerical simulation methods. Severity of collision in addition to the probability is needed in order to assess the influence on the structures. Hazard curve with respect to residual distance, which is defined as the moving distance from the structure when the falling rock does not collide with it, is proposed and estimated.
