STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TO PREDICT THE PERIOD OF RESTORATION WORK FOR EXPRESSWAYS BASED ON THE DATASET AFTER THE RECENT EARTHQUAKES

Abstract

 This study developed a numerical model to estimate the period of restoration work for expressway after an earthquake. A series of logistic regression analyses was performed based on the dataset after the recent earthquakes: the 2004 Mid-Niigata earthquake, the 2007 Chuetsu offshore earthquake, the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. The model constructed by this study had an excellent discriminating ability based on the assessment of receiver operating characteristics curve. The model was applied to estimate the restoration period of expressway after a scenario earthquake which may occur in the Nankai Trough.