Abstract
The author previously proposed prediction equations for uniform durations of JMA seismic intensity assuming that intensity is observed or predicted exogenously. Furthermore, by incorporating GMPE for intensity and its uncertainty, a consistent scheme for prediction of intensity and duration was proposed. However, application and validation of the proposed scheme to an actual earthquake has not been performed. In this study, the proposed scheme has been applied to the 2014 Nagano-ken Hokubu Earthquake (Mw=6.2). Durations estimated using observed intensity are highly correlated with observed durations. Those based on predicted intensity vary widely, however, dispersions are found to be unbiased around the observed durations. For comparison purpose, duration prediction equations obtained by direct regression are also derived and validated. As a whole, advantage of the suggested scheme has been validated.
