Abstract
It is important to evaluate the residual performance of bridge structures with aging deteriorated rubber bearings by carefully considering their uncertainty in deformation capacity. However, it is difficult to estimate the probability distribution of the ultimate strain of the bearings as there are only very limited number of test data. In this study, Bayesian estimation is performed to investigate the probability distribution and variation in the deformation capacity of aging deteriorated rubber bearings. Besides the tested ultimate strain of 4 aging deteriorated bearing samples, probability distributon from 112 new bearings' test resuts are used as pior-distribution. Increamental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) were conducted to evaluate the seismic performance of deteriorated structure with radom ultimate strain of bearings due to the estimation. The few numerical models' IDA were conducted and their their fragility and probobal damage mode under large earthquake were calculated for decision making issues such as the nessessary of changing the bearing to new ones or reinforcement of the sub-structure.
